Stock Price Growth Target as a Predictor of Earnings Manipulation: A Fraud Triangle Analysis of Technology Sector Issuers in Indonesia

Lie Adek; Dewa Putu Yohanes Agata L. Sandopart; Erma Wijayanti; Dewa Ayu Indiana Ida Loemongga Sandopart

doi:10.70716/ecoma.v4i2.496

Authors

Lie Adek Nautical Department, Akademi Maritim Nasional Jakarta Raya, Indonesia
Dewa Putu Yohanes Agata L. Sandopart Faculty of Economics, Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kosgoro 1957, Indonesia
Erma Wijayanti Faculty of Economics, Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kosgoro 1957, Indonesia
Dewa Ayu Indiana Ida Loemongga Sandopart Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Terbuka, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70716/ecoma.v4i2.496

Keywords:

Fraud Triangle, Stock Price Growth Target, Earnings Manipulation, Technology Issuers, Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to explore the role of stock price growth targets as a predictor of earnings manipulation among Indonesian technology sector issuers through the lens of the Fraud Triangle framework. Employing an exploratory qualitative approach with a single holistic case study design, the research involved 18 participants from 12 technology issuers listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2025 period. Data were gathered through semi-structured in-depth interviews, annual report reviews, and news documentation, and subsequently analyzed using six-phase thematic analysis. The findings reveal seven primary themes: aggressive target pressure as the dominant predictor; technical opacity as an opportunity for manipulation; collective rationalization within the technology ecosystem; manifestations of earnings manipulation; governance weaknesses; consequences of manipulation; and detection mechanisms. The novelty of this research lies in introducing stock price growth targets as a more contextually relevant proxy for pressure in the technology sector, in contrast to conventional proxies such as financial stability or leverage. Policy implications include the need for technology-specific accounting guidance, red-flag-based supervision using indicators such as extreme PER ratios and low free float, and the strengthening of criminal sanctions against manipulators.

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